With an eye on those previous analyses, the first step of the carbon strategy consists in identifying the main drivers likely to influence the company’s carbon emissions. Internal drivers can include the transport provision (ex: seat.km), the foreseen infrastructure projects and the expected growth in terms of staff. The external drivers can include energy and carbon price evolution, carbon intensity of the energy mix, the population growth and the modal shift objectives. A prediction of the evolution of each of these drivers has to be specified for a determined period.Fig. 22 – Example of the carbon emission drivers evolution for a typical public transport company
(e.g. yearly projections until 2020 or 2030). Those forecasts will be part of the decision criteria.
Based on these influencing parameters and on the carbon footprint, a baseline scenario can be calculated to estimate the future carbon balance of the company if no clear action plan is implemented. In this scenario, the energy efficiency is assumed to remain unchanged. It is recommended to include a sensitivity analysis of future scenarios to show the likely range of future projections.